Rising Unemployment Under Trump: A Troubling Pattern Emerges

Understanding the Unemployment Rate and Political Implications

The unemployment rate is a crucial indicator of economic health and can significantly influence political outcomes. Recent data released on Tuesday revealed that the unemployment rate has increased from 4% when President Trump took office to 4.6% in November. While this change might seem small, it's not uncommon for such shifts to occur during the early years of a presidential term.

According to data analyzed by Anthony DeBarros of The Wall Street Journal, six U.S. presidents since 1953 have experienced an increase in unemployment during the first 10 months of their first term. This list includes:

• Eisenhower (initially 2.9%, rose to 3.5%)
• Nixon (3.4%, rose to 3.5%)
• Ford (5.5%, rose to 8.8%)
• Reagan (7.5%, rose to 8.3%)
• George W. Bush (4.2%, rose to 5.5%)
• Obama (7.8%, rose to 9.9%)

Ford's presidency is unique because he took office following Nixon's resignation, making direct comparisons more complex. Among the other five presidents, the president's party lost at least 12 House seats in the subsequent midterm elections, except for George W. Bush. For Bush, the 2002 midterms were heavily influenced by national-security concerns after the September 11 attacks, which diverted attention from economic issues. Obama faced the most significant setback in 2010, losing 63 seats in the midterm elections.

Interestingly, during Trump's first term, the unemployment rate decreased from 4.7% to 4.2% in the first 10 months. Despite this improvement, Democrats still gained 41 House seats in the 2018 midterm elections. This highlights the complexity of political outcomes and the various factors that influence them.

Key Figures and Policies to Watch

Susie Wiles

Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, has remained relatively low-profile but has recently given several interviews to Vanity Fair, offering insights into her role and the administration's priorities.

Christopher Waller

Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve governor, is set to be interviewed by Trump for the position of Federal Reserve chairman. This appointment could have significant implications for monetary policy and economic stability.

Trump’s Schedule

On Wednesday, the president will travel to Dover Air Force Base to attend the dignified transfer ceremony for two U.S. soldiers and an American civilian interpreter killed in Syria. He will also deliver an address to the nation at 9 p.m.

Current Events and Developments

Pentagon and the Sept. 2 Boat Strike Video

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has stated that the video depicting the death of two alleged drug traffickers who survived an earlier attack on their boat will not be made public. Some Democrats, along with a smaller number of Republicans, have called for the footage to be released.

Travel Ban Extension

The Trump administration has extended its travel ban, adding more countries, including Syria, to the list. This decision follows the National Guard shooting in Washington, where the president expressed concerns about the safety of U.S. citizens.

Impact of Tax Law on Businesses

Under Trump’s tax law, companies that rely on expensive equipment are benefiting from a tax incentive known as "bonus depreciation." The Wall Street Journal’s Richard Rubin explores how this policy is affecting businesses on the Gulf Coast.

Other Notable Updates

White-Collar Workers and AI

White-collar workers are experiencing a decline in job security due to fears surrounding artificial intelligence and layoffs. This trend is causing concern among professionals in various industries.

Trump and Israel

Trump has expressed frustration over Israel's actions, claiming that the country is hindering his efforts to broker a deal after a deadly strike on a Hamas commander in Gaza.

Congressional Actions

Congress has passed a bipartisan $901 billion defense policy bill. Additionally, congressional Republican leaders have closed the door on compromise efforts to renew expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies before the new year begins.

What I’m Reading

• In Rare Move, Rep. Bice Condemns Trump Remarks After Rob Reiner Death (Daily Oklahoman)
• Whitmer Says Literacy Is Top Priority for Her Last Year in Office (Detroit Free Press)
• Christmas Day Gas Prices Expected to Drop to Lowest Level in Five Years (Breitbart)

About Me

I’m Damian Paletta, The Wall Street Journal’s Washington coverage chief. I’ve covered Washington for 22 years as a reporter and editor, focusing on the White House, Congress, national security, the federal budget, economics, and multiple market meltdowns. WSJ Politics brings you an expert guide to what’s driving D.C., every weekday morning. Send your feedback to politics@wsj.com (if you’re reading this in your inbox, you can just hit reply). This edition was curated and edited in collaboration with Alistair Dawber and Mali Michelle Fleming. Got a tip for us? Here’s how to submit.