Tech Updates, Inflation, New iPhones, GameStop, Oracle, and More This Week

Market Volatility and Key Economic Indicators

The S&P 500 ended the previous week nearly flat, as a weaker-than-expected jobs report initially sparked optimism among investors. They saw it as a sign that the Federal Reserve might implement more aggressive interest-rate cuts. However, the index hit an intraday record before experiencing a sell-off as Wall Street analyzed the implications of a labor market that added only 29,000 jobs per month from June through August.

This week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release an update to employment data, including a preliminary revision of jobs growth for April 2024 through March 2025. Analysts expect downward revisions, which could influence the possibility of a larger rate cut during the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on September 16-17.

A quarter-point rate cut is almost certain, with a 12% chance of a half-point reduction, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. The BLS will also release the producer price index on Wednesday and the consumer price index on Thursday. Inflation data has taken a backseat to concerns about a weakening labor market since Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s late-August speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Earnings Reports and Upcoming Events

On Monday, September 8, Casey’s General Stores will report its first-quarter fiscal-2026 results. Tuesday, September 9, will see several companies releasing earnings, including AeroVironment, Core & Main, GameStop, Oracle, Rubrik, SailPoint, and Synopsys. Additionally, the National Federation of Independent Business will release its Small Business Optimism Index for August, with a consensus estimate of 100.5, roughly even with the July figure.

The BLS will also release its preliminary revision to employment data for the 12 months ending March 2025. Economists at Wells Fargo suggest that a net loss of 475,000 to 790,000 jobs is a reasonable estimate. This would mean monthly jobs growth for those 12 months between 83,000 to 110,000, compared to the current 149,000. If the labor market was indeed weaker than previously thought, the Fed may need to cut interest rates more aggressively to support the economy.

Apple will hold an event at its headquarters in Cupertino, California, where it is expected to unveil new iPhone 17 models, including the ultrathin iPhone 17 Air. There could also be announcements for an Apple Watch 11 and AirPods Pro 3.

Key Dates and Data Releases

On Wednesday, September 10, Chewy will announce its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The BLS will release the producer price index for August, with economists forecasting a 3.3% year-over-year increase, matching July's rate. The core PPI, excluding food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 3.5%, slightly less than previously predicted.

On Thursday, September 11, Adobe and Kroger will host conference calls to discuss their earnings. The BLS will also release the consumer price index for August, with a consensus estimate of a 2.9% year-over-year increase, two-tenths of a percentage point higher than in July. The core CPI is expected to increase by 3.1%, matching July's data.

Finally, on Friday, September 12, the University of Michigan will release its Consumer Sentiment survey for September. Economists forecast a reading of 59.3, one point higher than in August but still well below historical levels. Consumer expectations for the year-ahead inflation were 4.8% in the August survey.