How New York's governor race shapes up after Lawler's move

Mike Lawler Confirms Not Running for Governor, Focuses on Congressional Seat

After months of speculation and media coverage, Mike Lawler has officially confirmed that he will not be running for the governorship of New York. Instead, the Republican congressman is focusing his efforts on defending his seat in New York’s 17th Congressional District, a key swing district that has played a pivotal role in recent elections.

Lawler emphasized the importance of his district during an interview with WCBS, stating, “My seat determined the outcome of control of Congress back in 2022 and again in 2024.” He also noted that he was one of only three Republicans to win a seat that Kamala Harris carried, highlighting its strategic significance for the House Republican majority.

With Lawler stepping back from the gubernatorial race, attention has now turned to fellow Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik. Her potential campaign for governor is being closely watched, especially as she hinted at making a final decision after the November election. In a social media post, Stefanik stated, “I will make a final decision and announcement after this year’s November election which we are all focused on.”

Despite not running for governor himself, Lawler expressed confidence that he would have been the best candidate to challenge Governor Kathy Hochul in 2026. However, some analysts believe that running for governor might have been a stretch for him in such a blue state. Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Poll, said, “In very blue New York, that may have been a little bit of a reach for him. The most important thing is that he currently holds that seat. It's a swing seat, and it's a competitive seat in a year where there will be a lot of money and time spent on who wins that congressional district.”

Impact on the Democratic Party

The news that Lawler is not running for governor has been seen as a positive development by some within the Democratic Party. Democratic State Senator Pat Fahy commented on the situation, saying, “Mike Lawler would have been the stronger candidate as he at least at times has shown the backbone in standing up to Donald Trump.” Fahy also noted that while Lawler has supported some controversial policies, including the reconciliation plan, he still voted for what he called “the big beautiful betrayal or big beautiful bill.”

Stefanik, meanwhile, has defended her own vote on the same issue. She highlighted the increase in the state and local tax deduction (SALT) and argued that without the Republican support, Democrats would have imposed the largest tax increase in U.S. history. “Kathy Hochul wanted the largest tax increase on New Yorkers who are already taxed to death,” she said.

Hochul Faces Internal Challenges

Governor Hochul has also been active on social media, but she is not without challenges. Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado has been campaigning against her in recent months, creating internal divisions within the Democratic Party. According to Miringoff, “If you want to talk about possibly an opening for the Republican in New York, the best prescription is a divided, hostile Democratic Party.”

Potential Republican Candidates

Beyond Stefanik and Blakeman, other potential candidates are emerging. Bruce Blakeman, the Republican County Executive from Nassau County, has expressed interest in running for governor. If Stefanik decides not to run for re-election to her congressional seat, Blakeman could step in as a viable alternative.

Miringoff described Blakeman as an attractive candidate, noting his experience as county executive and his ability to bring significant financial resources to a campaign. “He's had some national attention,” Miringoff said. “It's unclear where Donald Trump goes with this, but Blakeman is definitely a name to watch.”

As the political landscape continues to evolve, the focus remains on how these developments will shape the upcoming elections and the future of both parties in New York.