Charlie Kirk's Assassination Sparks Political Violence Cycle, Threatens Democracy

The Escalation of Political Violence in the United States

Since 2013, political violence in America has seen a dramatic increase, making public service and activism more perilous than ever before. What was once considered unthinkable is now becoming disturbingly routine. Political scientists warn that this surge in violence poses a serious threat to the stability of U.S. democracy.

Several high-profile incidents have underscored this growing danger. President Donald Trump has been targeted by assassins, as has Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and Rep. Nancy Pelosi, whose husband was seriously injured. In 2025, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro faced an attack when his home was set on fire. In Minnesota, a man shot and killed two elected Democrats along with their spouses and a golden retriever named Gilbert. When he was arrested, police found a hit list targeting dozens of Democratic lawmakers.

Last week, right-wing activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed at a political rally in Utah while debating transgender people's gun rights. His shooter, in a text to his roommate—a transgender woman—wrote that he had “had enough of (Kirk)’s hatred.” Kirk, known for promoting conservative ideals such as the subservience of women to men and criticizing the Civil Rights Act of 1964, became a symbol of the escalating tensions.

Data Shows a Worrying Trend

Institutes, organizations, and scholars studying democracy have observed that the rise in political violence is both a symptom of a weakening democracy and a contributing factor to its decline. If the U.S. can restore faith in its institutions and if political leaders denounce violence without blaming the opposing party, they argue, political violence could be reduced, allowing democracy to thrive.

This violence is not limited to physical acts; it also includes online harassment, intimidation, and threats. These forms of hostility can escalate into real-world violence. According to Shannon Hiller, co-founder and executive director of the Bridging Divides Initiative at Princeton University, “It is a reinforcing cycle,” but she adds, “we don’t have to accept that escalation is inevitable.”

Robert Pape Jr., a political scientist at the University of Chicago, warns that the U.S. is at a critical moment. He notes that the assassination of Charlie Kirk was tragic but not entirely unpredictable. “We are now at a watershed moment in the United States,” he said.

A Complex and Lethal Mix

FBI and Department of Homeland Security data reveal a 357% increase in domestic terrorism incidents between 2013 and 2021. A 2024 Reuters investigation found at least 300 cases of political violence across the U.S. between the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack and the 2024 presidential election, marking the most significant and sustained surge since the 1970s.

The Bridging Divides Initiative recorded over 250 incidents targeting local officials during the first half of 2025, a 9% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Hiller attributes this rise to several factors, including the spread of hate on social media, the false narrative that President Joe Biden stole the 2020 election, declining trust in institutions, lack of access to mental health resources, and the availability of guns.

These factors have created a “complex and often lethal mix” that fuels hostility in civic spaces. Hiller says, “You have this complex and often lethal mix that’s feeding off itself.”

The Chilling Effect on Elected Leaders

Fear of political violence is having a chilling effect on elected leaders, causing some to avoid controversial issues, skip public appearances, or even consider leaving politics altogether. A survey by Bridging Divides and CivicPulse revealed that women, people of color, and younger elected officials are disproportionately affected by targeted harassment.

Political violence is increasingly eroding democracy, according to the Violence and Democracy Impact Tracker, which measures the impact of political violence on eight pillars of democracy. Seven of these pillars, including freedom of expression and voting access, are under significant threat.

A 2025 survey of 500 political scientists found that democracy is indeed eroding. A similar survey by the Chicago Center on Global Affairs in October 2024 showed that 67% of Americans believe a weakening democracy is a major threat, with 75% of Democrats and 62% of Republicans calling it a “critical threat.”

An Era of Violent Populism

Political scientist Robert Pape describes the current situation as an “era of violent populism,” where both the left and the right are seeing unprecedented levels of violence. He draws parallels to the 1960s, when political violence was largely driven by the left due to social upheaval, including the Civil Rights movement and the Vietnam War draft.

Today, the U.S. is undergoing a historic demographic shift, transitioning from a white-majority democracy to a white-minority democracy. Pape suggests this shift may explain the rise of figures like Donald Trump, who campaigned against immigration and focused on deporting millions.

Richard Vatz, a professor at Towson University, attributes part of the rise in political violence to the antagonistic rhetoric in the media. He argues that politicians and activists are vying for attention, leading some individuals to resort to violence as a way to be heard.

A Path Forward

Despite the challenges, political scientists and scholars believe there is a way forward. They emphasize the importance of leaders working together and rejecting cycles of violence. Hiller calls for leaders to hold themselves accountable for setting the standard of civic discourse.

Jonathan Katz, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, points to examples like Brazil and Poland, where countries moved away from democracy but later reversed course through peaceful protest and elections. He cautions, however, that the longer a country moves toward an anti-democratic system, the harder it will be to reverse the damage.

The path to restoring democracy requires collective effort, accountability, and a commitment to peaceful dialogue. As the U.S. faces this critical moment, the actions taken today will shape the future of its democratic institutions.