Zohran Mamdani Outshines All NYC Mayoral Contenders—New Poll

Zohran Mamdani Leads New York City Mayoral Race with Strong Support

Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old self-described democratic socialist, is leading the five-candidate race for New York City mayor by double digits in a new poll. The survey indicates that Mamdani receives over 50 percent of the vote regardless of his opponent, marking a significant shift in the political landscape of the city.

Why It Matters

Mamdani's rise has sent shockwaves through the political community after he defeated Andrew Cuomo, a former New York governor and political powerhouse, in the Democratic primary. This victory has intensified an already contentious election cycle where Cuomo and Mayor Eric Adams are running as independent candidates, alongside former federal prosecutor Jim Walden. On the Republican side, 71-year-old conservative activist and talk show host Curtis Sliwa is aiming for a major upset.

What To Know

A recent poll conducted by Zenith Research and Public Progress Solutions from July 16 to July 24 surveyed 1,453 New York City residents. The results showed Mamdani with a commanding lead, securing 50 percent of support while the combined level of support for the four other candidates and undecided voters totaled 49 percent.

Cuomo came in second with 22 percent, followed by Sliwa with 13 percent. Adams received 7 percent, Walden collected 1 percent, and "others/I don't know" accounted for 6 percent. In a four-way race without Cuomo, Mamdani’s support increased to 55 percent, and in a four-way race without Adams, it rose to 51 percent.

Mamdani's support never dips below 50 percent in the poll, and it increases with a thinner field and head-to-head contests. A one-on-one matchup between Mamdani and Cuomo resulted in a win for the assemblyman with 52 percent to 40 percent, with 8 percent undecided. His advantage grows if facing off against Adams, increasing to 59 percent compared to 32 percent for the sitting mayor.

Adam Carlson, founding partner of Zenith Research, stated that Mamdani holds a 28-point lead over Cuomo in the current five-candidate race. He noted that a majority of voters would not consider voting for Cuomo, and Adams’ net favorability is lower than Trump’s. Sliwa, meanwhile, is mired in the low teens, making it difficult for anyone to challenge Mamdani in a split field.

Mamdani is also the only candidate that a majority of respondents (58 percent) would consider voting for in this fall's election. In comparison, 37 percent said they would consider voting for Cuomo; 27 percent for Adams; 26 percent for Sliwa; and 10 percent for Walden.

When asked who they would not consider voting for, just 32 percent of respondents said Mamdani. Respective numbers for Cuomo, Adams, Sliwa, and Walden were 60 percent, 68 percent, 59 percent, and 40 percent. Half of respondents said they don’t know enough about Walden to properly answer, which is the highest percentage by far, and 35 percentage points more than Sliwa and 40 percentage points more than Mamdani.

Amit Singh Bagga, founder and principal of Public Progress Solutions, highlighted that the poll—first in this cycle to be offered in four languages and capture national origin and religious denomination—shows that Black union households, young Jews, South Asians, East Asians, Latinos, and New Yorkers in every income bracket are all supporting Mamdani.

Key Issues and Voter Sentiment

The poll, which includes respondents from Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond counties, has a 2.9 percent margin of error for registered voters and 3.9 percent for likely 2025 mayoral election voters. About 70 percent of respondents said they were dissatisfied with the direction of the city. The most important issues to them are housing costs (65 percent); price of groceries, utilities, and household items (58 percent); and crime/public safety (51 percent).

What People Are Saying

David Schwartz, chairman of Gotham Polling and Analytics, noted that if everyone stays in the race, Mamdani will be tougher to beat. If the field clears for Cuomo, he would have a reasonable opportunity to win in a limited field. Schwartz also emphasized the importance of moderate turnout and whether college students will come out in record numbers like they did in the primary.

Mamdani recently posted on X showing Cuomo and President Donald Trump complimenting each other: "Trump loves Cuomo." Meanwhile, Adams criticized Cuomo for stepping down as governor in 2021 when investigated for sexual harassment allegations, stating, "I hung in there. I made a commitment to the city, that I was gonna serve as their mayor. He did not."

Cuomo, in remarks made while he was grand marshal at this year's Colombian Parade in Queens, criticized Adams for making a deal with President Trump to save himself at the cost of New Yorkers.

What Happens Next

The New York City mayoral general election is set for November 4. Adams, who won the office by running as a Democrat, is vying for his second term. The poll represents the largest sample size of any publicly released figures pertaining to the 2025 New York City mayoral general election.