Yes, Plane Turbulence Is Getting Worse — Here's Why

The Rise in Air Turbulence: A Growing Concern for Travelers and Airlines

Turbulence, the unpredictable movement of air that can cause an aircraft to jolt or shake, is becoming more frequent and intense. According to a 2023 study published by the American Geophysical Union, skies are now 55% bumpier than they were 40 years ago. This increase in turbulence is not just a minor inconvenience for passengers—it has significant implications for the airline industry and the safety of those on board.

The study suggests that these changes align with the effects of climate change. As global temperatures rise due to increased carbon dioxide emissions, wind shear in jet streams is intensifying, leading to stronger clear-air turbulence (CAT). CAT occurs when there is no visible sign of clouds or storms, making it particularly dangerous as it can happen unexpectedly.

Mark Prosser, a meteorologist at the University of Reading in England, highlights the growing challenges airlines face. He states that the industry must adapt to manage the increased turbulence, which costs the U.S. alone between $150 million and $500 million annually. Every additional minute spent in turbulent conditions increases wear and tear on the aircraft and raises the risk of injuries to both passengers and crew.

Real-World Impacts of Increased Turbulence

The consequences of this rising turbulence have already been felt by travelers. In June 2024, five individuals were taken to the hospital after an American Airlines flight from Florida to North Carolina encountered extreme turbulence. Passengers reported a man being knocked unconscious and a flight attendant suffering burns from spilled hot water. Similarly, on June 4, a Ryanair flight bound for Milan was hit by heavy turbulence, resulting in injuries to eight people, including a two-year-old child.

Data from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) shows that between 2009 and 2023, 40 passengers and 166 airline crew members reported serious turbulence-related injuries. These injuries include hospitalization for over 48 hours, bone fractures, severe nerve or organ damage, and second- or third-degree burns.

In response to these incidents, the NTSB recommended stricter guidelines for seat belt use during flights near thunderstorms and below 20,000 feet. These measures aim to protect both passengers and flight attendants from potential harm caused by sudden turbulence.

Innovations to Combat Turbulence

As turbulence becomes more prevalent, researchers are exploring new ways to address the issue. One promising approach involves the use of artificial intelligence (AI) to predict and manage turbulent conditions. Ricardo Vinuesa, a researcher in fluid mechanics, AI, and engineering at KTH Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm, explains that machine learning is well-suited for identifying patterns in complex data sets.

Vinuesa and his team developed an AI system that simulates aircraft wings and uses trial and error to create accurate numerical simulations of airflow. This technology allows researchers to determine which measurements and predictions are most critical for improving flight safety. The team is currently collaborating with tech companies to refine and enhance this system further.

Preparing for the Future

With the increasing frequency of turbulence, it is clear that both the aviation industry and travelers must remain vigilant. Airlines need to invest in better training for their crews and develop more advanced systems to detect and respond to turbulence. At the same time, passengers should be aware of the risks and follow safety guidelines to minimize the impact of unexpected turbulence.

As research continues to evolve, the hope is that new technologies and strategies will help make air travel safer and more comfortable for everyone involved.