Whole Hog Politics: Election Day 2025 Update

The New York Mayoral Race: A Dominant Front-Runner

The New York mayoral race has been a focal point of national media attention, largely due to the city's status as a major news hub. Despite having only 6% of the nation's population, New York receives disproportionate coverage because it is home to the two largest newspapers in the country and the headquarters of major broadcast news divisions. This dynamic often leads to an overemphasis on local politics that may not reflect broader national trends.

The race has seen significant drama, including a surprising primary win by Zohran Mamdani, a telegenic socialist who disrupted former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s comeback bid. The contest has featured ideological polarization, allegations of antisemitism, personal attacks, and the always unpredictable incumbent, Eric Adams, alongside a candidate with a signature headwear. However, what seems to be missing is a competitive race.

A recent Siena University poll shows Mamdani leading Cuomo by 19 points, Curtis Sliwa by 32 points, and Adams by 37 points. While there are still undecided voters and supporters of less prominent candidates, even with ranked choice voting, the race doesn’t look close. If Cuomo were the second choice of every Adams and Sliwa voter, it would still result in a tie in an automatic runoff.

For Cuomo, the good news is that Adams is below the viability threshold, and his support could drop further as voters realize he isn't a serious contender. However, Cuomo faces challenges in changing the race, as he is a well-defined figure in voter minds. He can't sneak up on anyone like Mamdani did in the primary.

Beyond New York: Key Races in New Jersey and Virginia

While New York City's electorate and issues differ from the rest of the nation, neighboring states like New Jersey and Virginia offer insights into the broader political landscape. In New Jersey, Republicans are hoping that suburbanites' backlash against Mamdani's perceived radicalism will work in their favor. Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assembly member, is the Republican candidate, while Mikie Sherrill, a moderate four-term Rep., is the Democratic front-runner.

Ciattarelli has been within 8 points and 6 points of Sherrill in recent polls, which could signal a possible win for Republicans. However, the current political climate is different from 2021, when Murphy was bogged down by unpopular policies. Now, Trump is more unpopular than Murphy in New Jersey, and voters looking for change might favor Democrats.

In Virginia, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is trying to become the first Republican governor in consecutive terms since 1998. However, the state’s police union endorsed her Democratic opponent, Abigail Spanberger, before endorsing other Republican candidates. This move highlights the challenges facing the GOP in Virginia, where federal policies, cultural issues, and immigration enforcement are liabilities.

Polls show Spanberger leading by 14 points in a Virginia Commonwealth University poll, with a favorable view of Youngkin and a poor view of Trump. Without a change in the race soon, this one may fall out of reach for Republicans.

Redistricting and Political Shifts

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has announced plans to put proposed new congressional maps on the ballot in a special election, aiming to counter Texas Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting efforts. Newsom’s plan seeks to respond to changes in Texas while affirming California’s commitment to an independent redistricting commission.

Meanwhile, in California, the governor’s race features Katie Porter and Steve Hilton leading the field after Kamala Harris decided not to run. Polls show Porter leading with 18%, while Hilton received 12%. Eleni Kounalakis has dropped out of the 2026 governor’s race, instead running for state treasurer.

In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown is planning to return to the Senate in 2026, positioning himself as a strong recruit for the Democratic Party. Brown would face Jon Husted, a freshman Republican senator, in a race that could determine control of the Senate.

Other Notable Developments

Maine Democrats are considering potential challengers to Sen. Susan Collins, with some hoping that Gov. Janet Mills might run. However, Mills’ intentions remain unclear, and other candidates, such as Ryan Fecteau and Cathy Breen, are also considering bids.

North Carolina remains a key state for the Senate, with its electorate being relatively inelastic. While the 2024 vote suggested a shift toward the left, the state’s racial polarization makes it challenging for Democrats to secure a win.

Mailbag: Redistricting and the Future of Congress

Readers have shared thoughts on redistricting, with some suggesting expanding the House of Representatives to reduce the impact of gerrymandering. Others argue that impartial commissions may not solve the problem, as map-making involves subjective decisions.

One reader proposed increasing the number of representatives to create more competitive districts, while another suggested allowing remote voting to accommodate a larger House. Responses highlighted the complexities of balancing partisan interests with fair representation.

Final Thoughts

As the political landscape continues to evolve, the races in New York, New Jersey, Virginia, and beyond offer valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities facing both parties. With the upcoming midterms and the potential for significant shifts in power, these contests will shape the future of American politics.