Two Right-Wing Candidates Head to Bolivia's Presidential Run-Off

A Shift in Bolivian Politics

After the first round of elections, a center-right senator and a right-wing former president have advanced to a run-off for Bolivia's presidency, signaling the end of two decades of leftist governance. Preliminary results from the electoral commission revealed that Senator Rodrigo Paz emerged as the surprise leader with 32.15 percent of the vote. This outcome came amid a deep economic crisis that has affected the country significantly.

Paz was followed by former President Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, who secured 26.87 percent of the votes, based on 92 percent of the ballots counted. Meanwhile, businessman Samuel Doria Medina, who had been expected to lead, found himself in third place with 19.86 percent. The main leftist candidate, Senate President Andronico Rodriguez, finished fourth.

Doria Medina quickly endorsed Paz, recognizing him as the leading opposition candidate. This move could play a crucial role in shaping the political landscape moving forward.

A Vote for Change

Quiroga, known for his commitment to reforming Bolivia's big-state economic model, celebrated the election results as a victory for democracy and liberty. He emphasized the need for change and expressed his intention to overhaul the current system if elected. Paz, who is the son of former President Jaime Paz Zamora, positioned himself as a unifier, claiming that the election was a vote for change and a program that serves everyone.

According to Gustavo Flores-Macias, a political scientist at Cornell University, Paz's late surge reflects a growing fatigue among voters towards the same candidates running for the top job repeatedly. Doria Medina and Quiroga had previously attempted to secure the presidency but failed. Flores-Macias also noted that Paz's success may be linked to a widespread rejection of candidates associated with big business.

The End of an Era

The election marks the conclusion of 20 years of socialist rule, which began in 2005 when Evo Morales, an Indigenous coca farmer, was elected on a radical anti-capitalist platform. Under Morales, Bolivia experienced more than a decade of robust growth and Indigenous empowerment. However, underinvestment in exploration led to a decline in gas revenues, the country’s primary income source, causing foreign currency reserves to shrink and leading to shortages of imported fuel and other essentials.

Miriam Escobar, a 60-year-old pensioner, expressed her desire for change, stating, “The left has done us a lot of harm. I want change for the country.”

Political 'Dinosaur'

Quiroga served as vice-president under ex-dictator Hugo Banzer and briefly as president when Banzer stepped down to fight cancer in 2001. On his fourth attempt for the presidency, he pledged to reduce public spending, attract foreign investment, and improve relations with the United States, which had deteriorated under Morales. However, some voters were skeptical of his promises of a "small state" and plans to establish tax-free investment zones in the Andean high plains, which hold 30 percent of the world's lithium deposits.

Agustin Quispe, a 51-year-old miner, referred to Quiroga as a "dinosaur" and chose to support Paz as a "third way" candidate, free from the influence of traditional right or socialist factions.

The Search for Stability

Daniela Osorio Michel, a Bolivian political scientist at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies, noted that people are seeking more than just a shift from left to right; they are looking for stability. This sentiment is reflected in the changing dynamics of the electorate.

Spoiled Ballots and Lasting Influence

Evo Morales, who was barred from running for a fourth term, cast a long shadow over the campaign. Nearly one in five voters chose to spoil their ballots in protest against his exclusion, reducing the left-wing vote. Rodriguez, the main leftist candidate, faced hostility during voting in Morales’ stronghold in Cochabamba. Morales, who has warned of mass protests if the right returns to power, has yet to comment on the election results.