Trump's influence boosted Japan's far right surge — and tourism

The Rise of a Far-Right Party in Japan's Political Landscape

Japanese politics has long been seen as a stable and predictable system, with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) dominating for decades. However, recent events have shaken this perception. Last Sunday, an obscure far-right party called Sanseito made a surprising leap from one to 15 seats in the elections, positioning itself as a serious political force. This shift has raised concerns among traditional power players, particularly the ruling LDP and its embattled leader, Shigeru Ishiba.

Sanseito’s "Japanese First" slogan, which echoes former U.S. President Donald Trump's "America First," has sparked significant controversy. It challenges the status quo and has rattled the LDP, which has held power almost continuously since 1955. The party's rise marks one of the most significant challenges the LDP has faced in post-war history.

A Rollercoaster Week for Prime Minister Ishiba

For Prime Minister Ishiba, the past week has been tumultuous. His LDP coalition lost its majority in the upper house of Japan's parliament, following last year's loss of control in the lower house. This has led to calls for his resignation within his own party. Despite sealing a deal on tariffs with the U.S., which was hailed as "massive" by the American president, the economic stability it brought could not prevent the political upheaval.

Japan is known for its stable democracy, where elections are rarely unexpected. The LDP has maintained a firm grip on power, making it seem immune to the populist trends seen elsewhere. But now, the party faces a formidable challenge that could reshape the political landscape.

Economic Struggles Fuel Public Frustration

The surge in support for Sanseito is partly driven by widespread public frustration over economic issues. Japanese households have struggled with inflation, high prices, stagnant wages, and a sluggish economy. One of the most visible signs of this hardship is the rising cost of rice, which has doubled since last year. A typical 5kg bag now costs over 4,000 yen (£20) in supermarkets.

This increase is due to a combination of factors, including a poor harvest in 2023 and an earthquake that caused panic buying. Long lines at supermarkets have become common, with shoppers expressing shock at the rapid price hike. For many, rice is more than just a staple—it's a symbol of stability that has been disrupted.

From 'America First' to 'Japan First'

Young voters, in particular, are disillusioned with the current political climate. They feel that traditional parties have failed to address their concerns. Eriko Harada, a young voter, said, "We're sick of the current political situation." Another supporter, Uta Kato, added, "Sanseito speaks on our behalf."

Some analysts attribute this shift to the influence of the "Make America Great Again" movement. Jeff Kingston, a professor of Asian studies, argues that Trump has empowered a sense of primordial identity in people around the world. This sentiment is also reflected in Sanseito's focus on immigration.

Immigration and National Identity

Japan has historically had low levels of immigration, but the number of foreign residents has been increasing. At the end of last year, there were approximately 3.77 million foreign residents, up nearly 11% from the previous year. While some argue that Japan needs migrants to support its aging population, others view them as a threat.

Uta Kato, a Sanseito supporter, said, "The burden on citizens, including taxes, is bigger so life is getting more difficult." Sanseito blames the government for policies that allow more foreigners into the country, though the party denies promoting xenophobia. Sohei Kamiya, the party's founder, claims that Japanese people feel uneasy because there are no clear rules for accepting foreigners.

Tourism and Cultural Tensions

Another unusual target of Sanseito is tourists. A weak yen has increased the number of visitors to Japan, but some locals are frustrated with what they see as disrespectful behavior. Incidents such as graffiti at Meiji Jingu shrine and traffic violations by tourists have sparked outrage. In Fujikawaguchiko, authorities even erected a screen to block the view of Mount Fuji from certain angles, citing tourist misconduct.

Some critics argue that Sanseito conflates the behavior of a few tourists with broader immigration issues, spreading misinformation about foreigners. Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University, says the party has exaggerated the threat posed by immigrants and focused on the idea of foreigners buying property.

The Rise of Sanseito

Founded in 2020, Sanseito gained traction through YouTube videos that spread conspiracy theories about vaccinations. Its founder, Sohei Kamiya, is a former supermarket manager and reservist who credits Trump for his bold political style. He attracted supporters unhappy with conventional parties, warning of a "silent invasion" of immigrants and promising tax cuts and welfare spending.

Kamiya has made controversial remarks on the campaign trail, including criticism of gender equality policies. However, he defended his stance, saying "Japanese First" was about rebuilding livelihoods by resisting globalism. He denied being xenophobic, claiming that the media misunderstood his message.

Passion Over Policy

Prof. Kingston suggests that Sanseito's success is less about policy and more about passion. "It's the passion, the emotions, and the social media," he says. Many voters in their 30s and 40s feel that while they may not agree with everything, Kamiya represents change and addresses their concerns.

Additionally, many of the LDP's core conservative voters have shifted to Sanseito, feeling that the ruling party is no longer far-right enough. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe represented the far-right wing of the LDP, but his successors have taken a more moderate approach.

The Future of Japanese Politics

While Sanseito's rise is significant, analysts say it's too early to tell if this trend will endure. The LDP remains a powerful force, with experience in foreign relations and navigating a volatile global order. Domestically, it is down but not out, as there is currently no viable alternative.

However, the far-right's success has shown that voters can no longer be taken for granted. Japan, once known for its stability, is now facing a new generation hungry for change—even if the direction of that change is still unclear.