The Big Retailers to Watch This Week

Major Stock Indices Show Mixed Performance

After reaching record highs last week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes saw modest gains this week, rising by 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average once again fell just short of its first record close since December, ending the week 0.2% below that milestone.

Equities experienced a strong start to the week following a more favorable-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Despite a much hotter-than-anticipated producer price index (PPI) released on Thursday, all three major indices remained relatively flat for the day, showing resilience in the face of mixed economic signals.

Key Event: Fed Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

The highlight of the week was Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday. This event has drawn significant attention, as Powell faces pressure from the White House and its allies. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently suggested that the Fed should consider cutting interest rates by half a percentage point during its September meeting. While the outcome of that meeting remains uncertain, Powell’s remarks may offer clues about the Fed’s future policy direction.

Traders have priced in a greater than 80% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the September meeting, reflecting market expectations for potential monetary easing.

Retail Earnings Offer Insight into Consumer Behavior

With many retailers operating on a fiscal year ending in January, this week featured several high-profile earnings reports that could provide insight into the health of the American consumer. These results may also reveal the impact of recent tariffs on business performance.

Home Depot announced earnings on Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s, Target, and TJX Cos. on Wednesday. Walmart, one of the largest retailers, released its results on Thursday, along with Ross Stores. These reports will be closely watched for signs of consumer spending trends and overall economic strength.

Housing Market Data and Manufacturing Indicators

In addition to retail earnings, housing market data will be released this week. The Census Bureau will publish new residential construction data for July on Tuesday, with economists forecasting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.3 million privately-owned housing starts. This figure is slightly lower than June’s reading, indicating continued challenges in the housing sector.

On Thursday, the National Association of Realtors will release existing-home sales data for July, with a consensus estimate of 3.9 million homes sold annually. This number is near its lowest levels since the aftermath of the 2008-09 financial crisis, highlighting ongoing weakness in the housing market.

Also on Thursday, S&P Global will release both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for August. Economists expect a Manufacturing PMI of 49.9 and a Services PMI of 53.4, compared to previous readings of 49.8 and 55.7, respectively.

Weekly Calendar Highlights

Monday, August 18:
Palo Alto Networks will report fourth-quarter fiscal-2025 results. The National Association of Home Builders will release its Housing Market Index for August, with a consensus estimate of a 34 reading—slightly higher than July’s figure. A reading above 50 indicates optimism among homebuilders, while a reading below 50 suggests caution.

Tuesday, August 19:
Home Depot, Jack Henry & Associates, Keysight Technologies, Medtronic, Toll Brothers, and Viking Holdings will release quarterly results. The Census Bureau will also report new residential construction data for July, with forecasts pointing to a slight decline in housing starts.

Wednesday, August 20:
Analog Devices, Estee Lauder, Lowe’s, Target, and TJX Cos. will announce earnings. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release minutes from its late-July monetary-policy meeting. At that meeting, the FOMC maintained the federal-funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, with two members dissenting—a rare occurrence in over 30 years.

Thursday, August 21:
Intuit, Ross Stores, Walmart, Workday, and Zoom Communications will report quarterly results. S&P Global will release its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for August. The National Association of Realtors will also release existing-home sales data for July.

Friday, August 22:
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. This year’s theme focuses on “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”