Google Missed Warning 10 Million in Turkey Earthquake

Google's Earthquake Early Warning System Fails in Major Disaster

Google has acknowledged that its earthquake early warning system did not provide accurate alerts during the devastating 2023 earthquake in Turkey. The system, which is designed to send warnings to Android users, failed to deliver critical information to millions of people who could have benefited from it.

During the 7.8 magnitude earthquake, ten million individuals within a 98-mile radius of the epicenter were potentially eligible for the highest level of alert. This alert would have provided up to 35 seconds of warning, allowing people to seek safety. However, only 469 "Take Action" warnings were issued during the initial quake.

A lower-level "Be Aware" alert was sent to approximately half a million users, but this type of notification is intended for lighter shaking and does not override the device's Do Not Disturb settings. Google had previously claimed that the system performed well, but these claims have been called into question following the disaster.

The Android operating system is used by more than 70% of mobile devices in Turkey, making the system a significant part of the country’s emergency response infrastructure. The earthquakes on February 6, 2023, resulted in over 55,000 fatalities and more than 100,000 injuries. Many victims were asleep when buildings collapsed around them, highlighting the need for timely and effective warnings.

Despite being active on the day of the quakes, Google's system underestimated the strength of the earthquakes. A spokesperson for the company stated, "We continue to improve the system based on what we learn in each earthquake."

How the System Works

Google's Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA) system detects seismic activity through a network of Android devices. Since earthquakes propagate slowly through the earth, the system can issue warnings once enough data is collected. The most severe alert, "Take Action," triggers a loud alarm that overrides the Do Not Disturb setting and covers the user's screen. This is meant to alert users to potential life-threatening shaking.

In contrast, the "Be Aware" alert informs users of less intense shaking and does not override device settings. In Turkey, the "Take Action" alert was particularly important due to the catastrophic nature of the quake and the fact that it struck at 04:17, when many people were asleep.

Following the earthquake, researchers attempted to find users who received the "Take Action" alert to assess the system's effectiveness. However, after months of outreach, they were unable to locate anyone who had received the warning before the quake hit. Their findings were published later that year.

Limitations and Improvements

Google researchers detailed the shortcomings of the system in the Science journal, citing limitations in the detection algorithms. For the first earthquake, the system estimated the shaking at between 4.5 and 4.9 on the moment magnitude scale, when the actual magnitude was 7.8. A second major quake later that day was also underestimated, with the system issuing "Take Action" alerts to 8,158 phones and "Be Aware" alerts to nearly 4 million users.

After the disaster, Google updated the algorithm and simulated the first earthquake again. This time, the system generated 10 million "Take Action" alerts for those at greatest risk and 67 million "Be Aware" alerts for those further away from the epicenter.

Google stated that every earthquake early warning system faces challenges in tuning algorithms for large magnitude events. However, some experts are concerned about the delay in addressing these issues. Elizabeth Reddy, an assistant professor at the Colorado School of Mines, expressed frustration that it took over two years to release the findings.

"I'm really frustrated that it took so long," she said. "We're not talking about a little event—people died—and we didn't see a performance of this warning in the way we would like."

Concerns About Reliance on Technology

Google emphasizes that the AEA system is supplementary and should not replace national warning systems. However, some scientists warn that countries may be placing too much trust in untested technology. Harold Tobin, director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, stressed the importance of transparency regarding the system's effectiveness.

"Would some places make the calculation that Google's doing it, so we don't have to?" he asked.

Google researchers claim that post-event analysis has improved the system, and AEA has since issued alerts in 98 countries. However, the company has yet to respond to questions about how the system performed during the 2025 earthquake in Myanmar.

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