Educated and Unemployed: Unemployment Trends Among European Graduates

University Degrees and Unemployment in Europe

In Europe, a university degree is often seen as a key to better employment opportunities. Across most European countries, the unemployment rate for university graduates is lower than that of the general population. However, this trend does not hold true for all nations. In 2024, Turkey was the only country among 33 European nations where university graduates faced higher unemployment rates than the overall population.

The gap between unemployment rates for graduates and the general population varies significantly across the continent. For instance, in 2024, the unemployment rate for people aged 15–74 ranged from 2.6% in Czechia to 11.4% in Spain. The EU average stood at 5.9%. Among these, Greece, Turkey, Serbia, and Finland and Sweden had unemployment rates above 8%, while Czechia, Poland, Malta, Germany, Iceland, the Netherlands, and Slovenia recorded rates below 4%.

Unemployment Rates Among University Graduates

When looking specifically at university graduates—defined as those with tertiary education under the ISCED classification—their unemployment rates in 2024 ranged from 1.4% in Czechia and Poland to 9.2% in Turkey. The EU average was 3.8%. Following Turkey, the highest unemployment rates among graduates were found in Greece (7.3%), Spain (6.9%), Serbia (6.5%), and France (5%).

This data highlights a significant disparity in the labor market outcomes for graduates across different countries. While some nations see strong benefits from higher education, others face challenges where the value of a degree is not translating into better job prospects.

Comparing Unemployment Rates: General Population vs. Graduates

When comparing the unemployment rates of the general population and university graduates, Turkey stands out as the only country where graduates experienced higher unemployment. The difference was -0.4 percentage points (pp). This anomaly is unusual, as the OECD noted that it is rare for the unemployment rate among tertiary-educated individuals to exceed that of the broader workforce.

The largest gap between the two groups was observed in Spain, where the general population’s unemployment rate was 11.4%, compared to 6.9% for graduates—a difference of 4.5 pp. On average, the EU saw a gap of 2.1 pp (5.9% vs. 3.8%). To better understand these differences, the ratio of unemployment rates between the general population and graduates can be used.

A ratio below 1 indicates that graduates have higher unemployment than the general population, while a ratio above 1 means the opposite. In the EU, the average ratio was 1.55, meaning the general population’s unemployment rate was 55% higher than that of graduates. Turkey, however, had a ratio of 0.96, indicating that graduates faced higher unemployment than the general population.

Long-Term Trends and Turkey’s Unique Situation

Looking at data from 2004 to 2024, Turkey was the only country where university graduates had higher unemployment than the general population. This situation occurred in 12 different years, starting from 2011. No other country showed this pattern during the same period.

Despite this, there are signs that Turkey’s educational landscape may be changing. In 2022, Turkey had the third-lowest share of tertiary graduates in Europe, with only 20.6% of people aged 25–74 holding a university degree. However, in 2019, Turkey had the highest rate of university students relative to its population, with 95 students per 1,000 people—more than double the EU average.

Expansion of Higher Education in Turkey

Turkey has experienced a dramatic expansion of its higher education system. In 2003, there were 53 public universities, but by 2018, this number had grown to 129. As of 2024, Turkey has 129 public and 75 private, foundation-based universities, totaling 204 institutions. This growth was driven by government policies aimed at establishing a university in every province.

However, this rapid expansion has led to concerns about the quality of education and the relevance of courses to the labor market. According to the OECD, the number of tertiary graduates has increased faster than the demand for jobs requiring higher education, leading to a decline in the economic returns of a university degree.

Challenges and Opportunities

OECD officials highlighted that there is a growing mismatch between the skills taught in Turkish universities and those needed by employers. Surveys indicate that Turkey has a relatively low number of graduates in STEM fields, which are critical for modern economies. As a result, the value of a university degree in the labor market is being eroded.

To address these issues, the OECD recommends focusing on improving the quality of tertiary education and aligning curricula with labor market needs. Without such changes, the challenges faced by university graduates in Turkey may persist.