Bolivia Votes as Left's Support Dips and Inflation Rises

Key Players in Bolivia's Election

Voters in Bolivia began casting their votes in a general election on Sunday, an event that has been significantly impacted by high inflation and the absence of former leftist President Evo Morales, who is barred from running. The election features several key contenders, with opposition conservative candidates Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga leading the race. However, neither candidate commands more than 30% support, as indicated by recent opinion polls, with around a quarter of Bolivians still undecided.

This August election represents a pivotal moment for Bolivia, as it marks the first time in almost two decades that polling suggests the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) could face defeat. According to the latest August Ipsos CEISMORI survey, support for MAS-affiliated and other left-leaning candidates is currently around 10%, trailing behind the opposition.

If no presidential candidate secures more than 40% of the vote with a 10 percentage point lead, the election will proceed to a runoff on October 19. Morales, who co-founded MAS and served as president from 2006 to 2019, is not eligible to run again. Despite this, he participated in the electoral process on Sunday by casting his vote in the central Cochabamba department. However, he later criticized the elections for excluding his political movement.

Electoral Process and Expectations

Ballot stations opened at 8 a.m. local time (1200 GMT) and will close at 4 p.m., with initial results expected after 9 p.m. Full official results are anticipated within seven days. Voters will also elect all 26 senators and 130 deputies, with officials set to assume office on November 8.

On Sunday morning, officials reported that the election day was proceeding smoothly, following some minor incidents at polling stations. Minister of Government Roberto Rios stated that security measures had been effective and warned against misinformation regarding the vote.

Economic Challenges and Voter Sentiment

Bolivia’s fragile economy is a major concern for voters, with price increases surpassing those of other Latin American countries this year. Fuel and dollar shortages have further exacerbated the situation. Annual inflation has doubled to 23% in June, up from 12% in January, prompting some Bolivians to turn to cryptocurrencies as a hedge.

Economist Roger Lopez noted that many Bolivians, especially those in the informal economy, are struggling to make ends meet. "Prices of the basic food basket are going up fast," said Lopez. "Suddenly the math doesn't add up anymore."

Voters may choose to punish MAS on Sunday, creating an opportunity for centrists, the right, or a leftist faction led by Senate President Andronico Rodriguez. Silvia Morales, a 30-year-old retail worker from La Paz, who used to support MAS, plans to vote for the center-right this time. Carlos Blanco Casas, a 60-year-old teacher in La Paz, expressed hope for change, stating, "This election feels hopeful. We need a change of direction."

Political Promises and Factions

Quiroga has promised "radical change" to reverse what he calls "20 lost years" under MAS rule. He supports deep public spending cuts and a shift away from alliances with Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua. Quiroga was president for a year in 2001-2002 after the then-leader resigned.

Doria Medina offers a more moderate approach, pledging to stabilize the economy within 100 days. On the left, the vote is split between the official MAS party candidate Eduardo del Castillo, backed by outgoing President Luis Arce, and Rodriguez, who has distanced himself from the party and is running independently.

Morales, 69, has called for a boycott of the election, but analysts suggest his influence is waning. Glaeldys Gonzalez Calanche of the International Crisis Group described the election as a "crossroads moment" for Bolivia, highlighting the importance of the vote in leading the country towards economic recovery.