China Surpasses Global Rivals in AI Research Lead

China's Dominance in AI Research

China has emerged as a global leader in artificial intelligence (AI) research, surpassing the combined output of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. This dominance is not just reflected in the volume of publications but also in the influence and centrality of its scientific networks. A recent report by Digital Science highlights this shift, showing that China is now the primary collaborator for Western researchers, while Chinese researchers are increasingly relying less on foreign partnerships.

The report titled DeepSeek and the New Geopolitics of AI analyzes global AI publishing and collaboration data from a comprehensive research information platform. It underscores China’s growing influence in the field, with its research papers receiving more than 40% of all citations globally in 2024. In comparison, the US and EU each drew around 10%, while the UK accounted for just over 2%.

Strategic Importance of AI Research

According to Daniel Hook, CEO of Digital Science and author of the report, AI research is becoming a strategic asset. “Whomever controls the best AI will hold a competitive advantage in a variety of fields,” he writes. This advantage includes an acceleration in research capacity, not just in AI itself but across various scientific disciplines.

China has also become the most connected country in AI science. Researchers in the UK now co-author more AI papers with China than with the US or EU. This trend is mirrored in the EU, where China has overtaken both the UK and the US as the major collaborator in AI research with the EU-27. Even in the US, where political efforts have attempted to curb collaboration, Chinese researchers remain the most frequent co-authors in AI.

Collaboration Dynamics

Despite this, the flow of collaborations has been overwhelmingly toward China rather than from it. In 2024, only 4% of China’s AI research included co-authors from the US, UK, or EU. In contrast, 14% of US AI publications involved Chinese collaborators, compared to 8% in the EU and over 25% in the UK. This pattern highlights China’s role as the prime connector for AI research.

China’s AI workforce includes around 30,000 active researchers, compared to 20,000 in the EU and 10,000 in the US. The younger, highly educated, and AI-literate workforce is laying the foundation for sustained innovation. This growth is evident in projects like DeepSeek, an open-source large language model launched in early 2025. Developed using domestic systems rather than US-made Nvidia chips, DeepSeek demonstrates China’s capability in AI development.

Innovation and Independence

A parallel analysis by market intelligence firm IDTechEx reinforces this shift toward independence. Their report titled US Export Controls on AI Chips Boost Domestic Innovation in China outlines how trade restrictions on advanced GPUs have spurred the development of domestic alternatives. Rather than cutting China off from the global AI race, these controls have encouraged local industry to innovate in compute architecture, efficiency, and model design.

DeepSeek is cited as one of the most prominent results of this trend. The report frames it as a technical response to sanctions, achieving competitive performance with hardware optimized for energy efficiency rather than brute-force scaling. This indicates that China’s AI ecosystem is adapting rapidly and advancing along a parallel track to the US, with an emphasis on domain-specific models and collaborative deployment across institutions.

Geographic Spread and Institutional Growth

In 2024, 156 research organizations across China each produced more than 50 AI publications. These institutions are spread across major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Nanjing. This widespread presence reflects China’s significant volume and density of AI capability, with research taking place at scale across the country.

In contrast, the EU had 54 such organizations, the US had 37, and the UK had 19. France, which has promoted a national AI strategy since 2018, had none that crossed the 50-paper threshold. According to the report, no African institution produced more than 50 AI publications in 2024, highlighting the lack of participation from the continent in the global AI research ecosystem.

The Path Forward

Hook emphasizes that success in AI development requires three key conditions: talent, infrastructure, and the translation of research into economic and social outcomes. China has built strength across all three dimensions, while Western countries are recalibrating around this momentum. African nations, however, are still forming a response.

“Whomever controls the best AI will hold a competitive advantage in a variety of fields,” says Hook. “One critical advantage will be an acceleration in research capacity – not just AI research itself but a general acceleration across research more generally.”